미국 코코아제품 인사이트

Cocoa and coffee are set to end 2024 as the top-gaining commodities for the second year in a row, taking advantage of a global supply deficit, while steelmaking coal will be the worst performer, hurt by China’s slow growth. Looking ahead, global trade tensions are likely to dominate the commodities landscape in 2025, with Donald Trump’s return to the White House threatening hefty tariffs, analysts said. A strong dollar and gold’s appeal as a safe haven for investors are likely to support precious metals prices, while ample supply could depress oil for a third straight year, they added. The bad news for chocolate lovers is that cocoa has nearly tripled in price over the course of 2024, far outpacing gains in other commodities. The contract hit a record high of $12,931 per metric ton in New York earlier this month on forecasts of a fourth consecutive supply crunch.

Cocoa prices fell on Friday, weighed down by massive fund liquidations in weak year-end markets. The ICE NY March contract fell 905 points (-8.21%), while the ICE London contract fell 994 points (-10.88%). This decline was exacerbated by profit-taking amid high export volumes by major producers such as Ivory Coast. Recent data shows that Ivorian farmers shipped 970,945 tonnes of cocoa between October 1 and December 15, marking a 30% increase compared to 744,967 tonnes in the same period last year. Meanwhile, Nigeria, the world’s sixth-largest producer, also increased its exports in November, registering a 35% increase to 38,015 tonnes. Despite the downward pressure, weather conditions in West Africa remain a concern for the market. Recent warnings from Maxar Technologies indicate that prolonged drought in the region is hampering development

Cocoa futures rose again after suffering their biggest weekly loss since October, reflecting uncertainty over global supply. Prices in London and New York rose about 4% on Monday, but then retreated slightly. That followed a more than 15% drop in New York futures last week, an unprecedented decline since late October. The market remains volatile, driven by concerns about the crop in West Africa, the world’s largest cocoa-producing region. Those fears have made the commodity one of the most valued in 2024, as the market grapples with exchange-certified inventories at their lowest level in nearly two decades. While speculators are taking advantage of record prices to profit, producers and processors are worried about the impact of another poor harvest, which could further tighten global cocoa supplies. In the grains market, corn futures are also showing signs of weakness.