미국 기타 무알코올 음료 insights

According to a report by the Brazilian website "exame" on December 25, despite this year being in the "off-year" cycle for Brazilian coffee production, the expected production is the third highest in Conab's historical data, only surpassed by 2020 and 2018. Both of these latter years were in the "on-year" cycle for coffee production. Brazilian coffee production has an "on-off" cycle, where a high production year is likely to be followed by a lower production year. This phenomenon is caused by the depletion of nutrients due to excessive fruiting, climatic stress (such as drought and high temperatures), or poor management. The "on-off" cycle of production is an alternating phenomenon, with a high production year ("on-year") followed by a low production year ("off-year"), and so on. According to Conab's data, this year's production of robusta coffee is expected to reach 20.8 million bags, a 42% increase year-on-year, and is expected to set a new historical record. On the other hand, arabica coffee production is expected to decrease by 9.7% to 35.76 million bags. According to statistics from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters' Association (Cecafé), from January to November 2025, Brazil's total coffee exports were 36.868 million bags, a 21% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Despite the decrease in export volume, foreign exchange income increased by 25.3%, rising from $11.377 billion in the first 11 months of last year to $14.253 billion this year. Although the decrease in exports is partly due to the new U.S. tariff policy, the U.S. remains Brazil's largest coffee buyer this year, with purchases totaling 5.042 million bags from January to November. This figure accounts for 13.7% of Brazil's total coffee exports for the same period, but it is a 32.2% decrease compared to the first 11 months of 2024. In addition to the U.S., the second-largest buyer of Brazilian coffee as of November was Germany, with purchases of 5.003 million bags, a 31% decrease from the same period last year. Next was Italy, with purchases of 2.912 million bags, a 21.7% decrease year-on-year; Japan, with purchases of 2.413 million bags, a 17.5% decrease year-on-year; and Belgium, with purchases of 2.146 million bags, a 47.5% decrease year-on-year.

According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), in November, the United States' announcement of changes in tariffs and severe flooding in Southeast Asia, particularly in the Central Highlands region of Vietnam, were the two main factors governing global coffee price fluctuations.

The expectation of coffee being removed from the list of products overtaxed by the U.S. and the weather reinforced the scenario.