U.S. Pistachio Exports to China Plummet 46%, Rerouted Trade via Vietnam Surges 40%
According to the German media Mundus Agri, despite the United States facing a bumper pistachio crop year, data released by the International Nuts and Dried Fruits Council (INC) at its early May conference indicates that global pistachio production in the 2025/26 season is still expected to be lower than the previous season. This season, U.S. pistachio exports have been weak, with exports to China plummeting by 46%, but the agreement reached between China and the U.S. in Geneva has added an unexpected variable to the market.
A Bumper Crop Cannot Mask the Gloomy Outlook
Although the U.S. is poised for a 72.64-ton (1.6 billion pounds) harvest in the 2025/26 season, global production is expected to decline by 3% compared to the 2024/25 season, dropping to 1,130,650 tons. The key issue lies in Turkey's sharp production decline—after reaching a historical high in the 2024/25 season, the country is about to enter a cyclical low year, compounded by frost impacts in some production areas. Turkey's pistachio production is predicted to plummet from 415,500 tons in the 2024/25 season to 14,300 tons, a dramatic 65.6% drop.
The supply side presents a different picture. Global supply is expected to grow by 10%, increasing from 1.332 million tons in the 2024/25 season to 1.462 million tons in the 2025/26 season. The main driver remains Turkey, with its end-of-season carryover stocks reaching an astonishing 243,400 tons. Since 2011, Turkey has continuously expanded its pistachio cultivation area, with rising production gradually establishing it as a reliable, stable supplier, while consumer awareness of Turkish pistachios has also been improving.
The U.S. production is expected to reach 72.64 tons (1.6 billion pounds). Although its production is predicted to continue growing in the next five years, the growth rate has peaked and will remain stable. The U.S. pistachio industry is targeting India as an emerging hot market while intensifying its marketing