미국 견과류 insights

Core tip: Affected by the U.S.-China trade dispute, since the start of the 2024/25 season, U.S. almond exports have slightly declined year-on-year, while geopolitical unrest has led to a significant shrinkage in shipments to the Middle East. Chinese buyers have turned to Australian sources, and India has replaced China as the largest overseas market for U.S. almonds. As of the end of July 2025, U.S. almond processors have pre-sold 284.8 million pounds of 2025 crop almonds, a significant decrease of 25% from 379.0 million pounds in the same period last year.

Affected by the China-U.S. trade dispute, since the start of the 2024/25 season, U.S. almond exports have slightly declined year-on-year, while geopolitical turmoil has led to a significant shrinkage in shipments to the Middle East. Chinese buyers have turned to Australian sources, and India has replaced China as the largest overseas market for U.S. almonds. As of the end of July 2025, U.S. almond processors have pre-sold 284.8 million pounds of the 2025 crop season almonds, a significant drop of 25% from the 379.0 million pounds sold in the same period last year. On August 12, the Almond Board of California (ABC) released its July market report. The report mainly re-evaluates the supply and demand situation at the end of the 2024/25 crop season, updates pre-sale data, and the new sales year officially starts in August. Analysis of Pre-sales for the New Crop Season Almonds From the 2020/21 to the 2024/25 crop season, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) target pre-sale percentage as of the end of July was 7.9%-23.2%. The current pre-sale volume of 284.8 million pounds accounts for only 9.5% of the estimated 3 billion pounds production. On July 10, the USDA increased its previous production estimate of 2.8 billion pounds by 7% to 3 billion pounds. This means that the 2025 production is expected to be the second highest in history, only behind the 2020/21 crop season, with an increase of nearly 10% from last year. The upward adjustment of the production estimate has made the pre-sale progress for the 2025/26 crop season more lagging, with pre-sales as of the end of June accounting for only 3.72% of the estimated production. New crop season sales in July usually reflect the direction of the production estimate adjustments. The 2023/24 crop season also increased its production estimate in the middle of the season, and the pre-sale rate during that period reached a historical low. At the end of June 2023, the pre-sale volume for the 2023/24 crop season was 122.4 million pounds, accounting for 4.9% of the estimated production. By the end of July, the total pre-sale volume for the new crop season was 204.9 million pounds, with 82.5 million pounds added in July, accounting for 40.3% of the total pre-sale volume for the new crop season. At the end of June 2025, the pre-sale volume for the 2025/26 crop season was 111.5 million pounds, accounting for 4.0% of the then estimated 2.8 billion pounds production. Throughout July, U.S. sellers added 173.4 million pounds of pre-sales, accounting for 61% of the current total volume of 284.8 million pounds, marking the largest single-month increase since July 2020 (when the target estimated production was also 3 billion pounds). Image source: pixabay 2025 International Fruit and Vegetable Report. All rights reserved. For reprints, please contact the International Fruit and Vegetable Report for permission and credit.

China's retaliatory tariffs on the United States in the nut sector primarily affect pecans, almonds (badam), walnuts, pistachios, macadamia nuts, and hazelnuts. These products were subject to an additional 10% tariff in March of this year. After negotiations on May 12, the additional tariff imposed in April was partially canceled, but the 10% tariff from March remains in effect. On July 22, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) issued a trade alert on its official website stating that China has suspended the 301 tariff exemption for U.S. agricultural products. This means that various agricultural products, including U.S. imported nuts, will no longer receive new applications starting from August 1, 2025, and approved applications will remain valid until September 14, 2025. Recently, according to verification by industry insiders, the U.S. nut import tariff exclusion policy will be extended to October 30, 2025, with approved applications remaining valid until December 13, 2025. This means that applications submitted before October 30 will continue to be subject to the current tariff. Currently, the provisional tariff for U.S. imported nuts ranges between 25-60%, with unshelled hazelnuts and walnuts having the highest tariff (60%), and nuts processed or preserved by other methods (including roasted almonds, hazelnuts, pistachios, pecans) having the lowest tariff (25%), with other nuts having tariffs between 42-47%. Applications submitted after October 30 will be subject to tariffs of 55-75%.