According to Brazil's "G1" website, based on the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA-15) released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) on June 26, coffee powder was the second-largest item impacting that month's inflation after electricity. Its price rose 2.86% compared to May, but has accumulated a total increase of 81.6% over the past 12 months.
On the other hand, in the fields, the most common and most consumed Arabica coffee beans in Brazil have seen prices begin to decline since entering the harvest season in March. Data from the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics at the University of São Paulo (Cepea-Esalq/USP) shows that in June this year, the monthly average purchase price of this coffee variety dropped 17% from its historical peak in February.
Brazilian economists indicate that the current trend is that the decline in coffee bean purchase prices will begin to affect end consumers in the second half of this year, but this impact will be gradual. However, if the subsequent harvest (from March to September) is favorable, consumers can expect a notable price reduction trend by 2026.
Data from the National Institute of Geography and Statistics shows that the upward trend in coffee powder prices has been slowing month by month since March this year. Fernando Maximiliano, an analyst at StoneX's Brazilian branch, explains that from coffee bean harvesting, drying, processing, to roasting, packaging by manufacturers, and market distribution, it takes considerable time to transmit purchase price changes to consumers.
Carlos Cogo, partner at Brazilian agricultural consulting firm Cogo, estimates that consumers may need 60 to 90 days to see noticeable price changes. However, Cogo also emphasizes that even as prices begin to fall, they will not immediately return to levels before the second half of 2024. "This is the beginning of a gradual recovery."
Maximiliano shares a similar view. He points out that coffee powder inflation will begin to decline month by month, but the cumulative inflation over the past 12 months will continue to rise. In other words, even with a downward trend, coffee powder prices will remain high for some time.
Regarding the reasons for the decline in field coffee bean purchase prices, Cogo believes that besides Brazil's harvest season, coffee production in
