브라질 커피 음료 인사이트

The price of coffee may begin to decline for consumers in the coming months, driven by the progress of the harvest in Brazil and the increased supply of robusta variety beans. This assessment comes from Itaú BBA in its latest Agro Vision report, which highlights a more favorable scenario for the industry after a period of rising raw material costs.

CNN Brazil reported that Guilherme Mello, Director of Economic Policy at the Ministry of Finance, explained that if the 50% tariff on imported Brazilian products is maintained, Brazilian producers will tend to diversify their markets. "If these tariffs remain unchanged, exports of some goods to the United States will significantly decrease, including meat and coffee. A 50% tariff is high for a series of our export products," Guilherme Mello stated. Despite the current serious situation, Mello believes that any analysis of the inflationary impact of Trump's announced tariffs is "premature." "Brazil has the ability to absorb part of the production originally intended for export. If this occurs, it is possible to see a scenario where part of the production originally meant for export is redirected to the domestic market, thereby increasing domestic supply of these products and affecting prices," he added. Regarding GDP, the Brazilian Ministry of Finance estimates that the 50% tariff will have a "negligible" impact on economic growth in 2025. The ministry predicts that Brazil's economy will grow by 2.5% this year. Among Brazilian export commodities, raw materials are the largest, especially crude oil, steel, cellulose, coffee, orange juice, and beef. Compared to manufactured goods, these products are easier to redirect to other countries and regions. However, trade between Brazil and the United States also includes some manufactured goods, such as aircraft and energy machinery. In the first half of 2025, the US trade surplus with Brazil reached $1.7 billion, growing by approximately 500% compared to the same period in 2024. Bilateral trade during the same period increased by 7.7%, reaching $41.7 billion, a historical high. In the first half of the year, Brazil's total exports to the United States reached $20 billion, growing by 4.4% compared to the same period in 2024. Brazil's top ten export products to the United States are: crude oil, steel semi-finished products, unroasted coffee, aircraft, pig iron, fuel oil, beef, juice, pulp, and civil engineering facilities and equipment. According to the State of São Paulo newspaper, based on a survey by the Brazilian American Chamber of Commerce (Amcham Brasil), São Paulo was the state with the highest exports to the United States in 2024

Brazil is highly dependent on component imports – approximately 85% of the fertilizer used in the Country is imported, according to a report by Anda (National Association for Fertilizer Dissemination). Potassium chloride, Urea, simple superphosphate, ammonium sulfate, and MAP are the most consumed fertilizers in Brazil – they nourish crops such as soybeans, corn, sugarcane, cotton, and coffee.