커피 음료 insights

The coffee industry has closed the 2024/2025 crop year with a record high coffee export turnover of 8.4 billion USD. From the beginning of the year to now, exports have also exceeded 7 billion USD.

Since early October, Vietnam has entered the 2025-2026 coffee harvest season. On the international market, the price of Vietnam's main product, Robusta coffee, has remained high at $4,500-$4,600 per ton recently. Meanwhile, Arabica coffee prices have surged significantly in recent transactions, approaching the threshold of $9,000 per ton, a record high that occurred in February 2025 when U.S. President Donald Trump announced the implementation of global reciprocal tariffs. According to the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), if the export volume decreased by 12% despite an increase in the previous year's export value, Vietnam's coffee exports for the 2024-2025 season will exceed 1.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of nearly 6%. This positive signal has driven the export value from $5.4 billion in the previous year to $8.4 billion. Nguyen Van Hai, President of VICOFA, stated, "In the 2025-2026 season, coffee production is expected to increase by about 10%, and the price trend will still be favorable for Vietnam's export activities." Regarding the global market, Nguyen Van Hai believes that "coffee flow" will be significantly affected by trade and tariff policies. Recent fluctuations have already caused a surge in Arabica prices, and the upward trend will also drive up Robusta prices in Vietnam, bringing positive signals for Vietnam's coffee in the new season. To welcome the new season, VICOFA leaders and major enterprise representatives visited the U.S. in September for on-site inspections and conducted work exchanges with the U.S. Coffee Association and the U.S. Specialty Coffee Association. The U.S. Coffee Association is currently advising the government to remove coffee products from the reciprocal tariff list, as the U.S. does not produce coffee. Although the results are yet to be seen, Nguyen Van Hai emphasized that the most pressing issue for Vietnam's coffee industry is to improve coffee quality and branding. Currently, Vietnam is the world's second-largest coffee exporter (Robusta ranks first), but its products still lack branding, with 85% of exports being coffee beans. Mr. Nguyen Van Hai pointed out, "To change this situation, it is necessary to start restructuring production according to new market standards, strengthen deep processing, and build brands, so that Vietnam's coffee industry can achieve sustainable development and reach the billion-dollar target in the coming years."

Coffee futures prices closed last week on the rise, reflecting the impact of the weather in Brazil and the recent escalation of tensions between Colombia and the United States, according to information from StoneX. The depreciation of the dollar also contributed to the movement, while data from Japan pointed to a drop in consumption, showing a mixed scenario for the global market.