브라질 농산물 반제품 insights

Brazil went through turbulent times in its chicken industry over the year. The first and only outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza on a commercial farm tested the sector’s resilience, which, with a solid contingency plan, managed to resolve the issue with great agility and efficiency. The resumption of exports to some destinations took longer

Conab (Brazil's National Supply Agency) forecasts that chicken production in the country will reach a new record of 15.86 million tons in 2026. This represents almost half of the total meat production, which is estimated at 32.6 million tons in 2026 (0.4% higher than expected in 2025), according to the agency's data. Chicken production forecast

According to a report by CNN Brazil on November 26, despite the avian flu outbreak reported in Rio Grande do Sul in May, chicken exports remain active, with an estimated export volume of 5.2 million tons this year, slightly higher than the 5.15 million tons in 2024. In November of this year, China, the world's largest chicken importer, announced the full resumption of imports of Brazilian chicken. CONAB predicts that Brazilian chicken exports will continue to increase to 5.25 million tons by 2026. The national chicken production is expected to reach 15.86 million tons in 2026, a historical high. In terms of domestic demand, the supply in the Brazilian domestic market is expected to increase by 3.1% next year, rising from 10.3 million tons in 2025 to 10.62 million tons. If the forecast comes true, the per capita supply of chicken in Brazil will reach 51.3 kilograms in 2026, ensuring the consumption needs of residents. The pork market will also show a similar trend. According to CONAB data, Brazil's pork production is expected to reach around 5.63 million tons in 2025, with exports estimated at 1.48 million tons, and domestic supply increasing from 4 million tons in 2024 to about 4.16 million tons. This growth trend is expected to continue into next year. According to the agency's forecast, Brazil's pork production will increase by 4.5% in 2026, reaching 5.88 million tons. The growth in pork production in 2026 is expected to drive exports further up to 1.6 million tons, while domestic supply is expected to increase by 3.2% to about 4.3 million tons. In the beef market, CONAB predicts that Brazil's production will reach 11.38 million tons in 2025, slightly higher than the 2024 production. Brazil's beef exports are expected to increase to 4.21 million tons this year, a historical high. Despite the U.S. government's imposition of "reciprocal tariffs" on Brazilian beef this year (which were canceled in mid-November), Brazil's beef export trade remains strong, mainly due to demand from the Chinese market. Statistics show that the Chinese market has absorbed 53.7% of Brazil's total beef exports this year. However, it is expected that the breeding cycle of Brazilian cattle will be adjusted in 2026. Due to the increase in the retention rate of cows, meat production may decrease, with an expected drop to 10.89 million tons. Meanwhile, international demand for Brazilian beef is expected to remain strong, so the export volume of this product is expected to remain stable at around 4.25 million tons.