Canada Grains, Cereal & Legumes insights

Canadian wheat milled for flour was steady in November from the previous month but down 2.6% from November 2023. Wheat flour produced in Canada during the month was down 4% from October and from November 2023. Statistics Canada in its Dec. 24 milled wheat and wheat flour produced report indicated 293,281 tonnes of wheat was

Soybean futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ended lower on Friday on a lack of follow-on buying after the benchmark March contract hit its highest level in nearly two weeks.

The new year for major crops is off to a particularly difficult start, according to Dutch bank Rabobank, with very narrow profit margins and a strong element of uncertainty. However, as the year progresses, it is estimated that the increased trading activity of recent months will translate into better pricing for a range of agricultural commodities. Initially, prices weighted across all types of wheat are expected to increase, perhaps breaking above 260 euros per ton according to the virtual stress test examined by the Dutch. A number of vegetable oils, such as palm oil, but also sunflower oil, are also expected to enter an upward channel, mainly due to reduced supply and low stocks at the end of the current season. Regarding animal feed, Rabobank is pessimistic in the short term, estimating that the corn surplus experienced by the US during this season will be repeated, keeping prices internationally at similar levels to 2024. An uncertain factor is, of course, the new head of the US government, Donald Trump. Possible tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, Canada and other countries could further hurt the already squeezed profits of American farmers. It is recalled that in 2023, the US imported agricultural products worth $195 billion. In any case, China is expected to be the main target of the tariffs. In the event of retaliation, soybeans - the largest US agricultural export in terms of volume - will logically be targeted again. With prices having undergone a 25% correction in the last 2 years, Americans may find themselves in an even more difficult position, despite any support measures taken by the Trump administration.