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According to German media Mundus Agri, Chinese suppliers are facing an export ban on macadamia nuts due to Kenya's severe crackdown on smuggling, while Trump's tariff policies have yet to shake the industry. Illegal Containers Seized Local media ntv reported that intelligence agencies seized three 40-foot containers at the Port of Mombasa on June 3rd, containing 27 tons of unprocessed macadamia nuts. Kenya has implemented a strict raw macadamia export ban aimed at protecting farmers and local processing industries while enhancing added value. However, industry representatives have repeatedly warned that this would encourage smuggling. The exporter DLI International Group attempted to smuggle the shipment—valued at $64,300—to China through Mozambique by falsely declaring the goods as "waterproof canvas". Authorities have currently detained the containers in Mombasa for a thorough investigation. Export Ban Impacts Chinese Market In recent years, Kenya's macadamia exports to China have continued to grow. Data from the World Macadamia Organization shows that China's annual import volume has surged from 400 tons to 7,600 tons, an increase of nearly 20 times. Domestic Chinese suppliers emphasize that raw material supply is becoming increasingly tight due to Kenya's export ban, with some specifications already sold out. If the ban continues, prices are expected to remain high. Currently, China is the world's second-largest macadamia producer (after South Africa), with Kenya ranking fourth (behind Australia). Industry Calmly Responds to Trump Tariffs Meanwhile, the industry remains calm about Trump's tariff policies. Currently, products from South Africa and Kenya face a 10% comprehensive tariff. However, due to the diverse customer base of macadamia suppliers, the impact is relatively limited. US importers also emphasize the importance of supplier diversification—given the difficulty in predicting which countries will face what tariffs. The reality is that the US still needs to rely on imports to meet domestic demand, and the market is expected to absorb small price increases.

Key Insight: According to the German media outlet Mundus Agri, despite the United States facing a bumper crop year for pistachios, data released by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) at its early May conference indicates that global pistachio production in the 2025/26 season is still expected to be lower than the previous season. This season's US pistachio exports have been weak, with exports to China plummeting by 46%, but the agreement reached between China and the US in Geneva has added an unexpected variable to the market.

Core Tip: According to German media Mundus Agri, the Statistical Yearbook of the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) shows that global almond production in the 2024/25 season surged 23% from the 2022/23 season to 1.8 million tons (3.9 billion pounds). The US government's tariff policy is reshaping the international trade pattern of almonds.