미국 동물성 기름 및 지방 인사이트

Donald Trump, the 47th President of the United States, will return to the White House on the 20th (local time). How will the domestic livestock industry environment change in the era of ‘Trump 2.0’? The Livestock Products Quality Evaluation Institute recently published a report titled ‘The Impact of the Trump 2.0 Era on the Livestock Industry’, pointing out that as the America First policy tone is further strengthened, the tendency to export pork to foreign countries will intensify as domestic pork production increases. Domestic agricultural and livestock products are recording a trade deficit with the United States. The amount of agricultural and livestock products imported from the United States is greater than the amount exported by us. Nevertheless, the United States is expected to use the agricultural and livestock industry as leverage to resolve its trade deficit. In particular, the report predicted that Korea will demand more agricultural and livestock products from the United States, focusing on ▲items of high interest to the United States, ▲items where the U.S. surplus is decreasing, and ▲items mainly imported from third countries. Among agricultural and livestock products, the import pressure on pork is expected to be the greatest. According to the Korea Rural Economic Institute and NH Investment & Securities Research Center, the import volume of pork from the US has steadily increased to 116,000 tons in 2022, 131,000 tons in 2023, and 162,000 tons last year. It is also noteworthy that the supply of pork in the US is increasing. Since domestic production of beef is decreasing, the import pressure is relatively small. The export pattern of our agricultural and livestock products to the US is also likely to change. This is because if the US imposes new tariffs on agricultural and food products or raises them, price competitiveness in the US may weaken. The proportion of livestock products among agricultural and food products exported to the US is low, but export volume has been increasing recently. Condensed milk has the highest proportion, followed by chicken, sausage, and cheese. Korean chicken ranks fourth in the US import market after Canada (81%), Chile (12%), and Mexico (3.6%), but the report predicts that the impact of tariffs will be limited as its proportion is only 1.8%. However, the report added that the export amount of Samgyetang has been steadily growing, and the impact of tariff changes needs to be closely examined. An official from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Globally, there will be less pork due to reduced stocks and demand. The United States, on the other hand, is strengthening its position as a leading exporter.

1 Production, trade and prices of livestock products in major countries (I) Pork In terms of production, the US pork production in September was 1.008 million tons, up 2.1% year-on-year; the pork production from January to September was 9.296 million tons, up 2.2% year-on-year. In terms of trade, in September, the pork exports of the United States and Brazil both increased year-on-year. From January to September, the US pork exports were 2.378 million tons, up 5.0% year-on-year, and the Brazilian pork exports were 955,000 tons, up 6.1% year-on-year. In terms of price, the US pork price is at a high level since the fourth quarter of last year. According to the exchange rate of the same period, the wholesale price of pork cuts in October was 14.95 yuan/kg. The Brazilian pork price is at a high level during the same period. According to the exchange rate of the same period, the Brazilian pork price in October was 14.95 yuan/kg. The price of pork in the West is 16.64 yuan/kg. The price of pork in the European Union continues to fall. According to the exchange rate of the same period, the price of pork in October was 15.3 yuan/kg. (II) Poultry In terms of production, the US poultry production in September was 1.978 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. The poultry production from January to September was 17.902 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. In terms of trade, in September, the exports of chicken in the United States and Brazil increased year-on-year. From January to September, the US exported 2.275 million tons of chicken, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6%; Brazil exported 3.823 million tons of chicken, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%. In terms of price, the price of chicken in the United States stopped falling and rebounded. According to the exchange rate of the same period, the price of chicken in October was 22.47 yuan/ kilograms. The price of chicken in Brazil continued to rise. According to the exchange rate of the same period, the price of chicken in October was 9.45 yuan/kg. The price of chicken in the EU rose slightly, and was at a high level during the same period. According to the exchange rate of the same period, the price of chicken in October was 21.58 yuan/kg. (III) Beef In terms of production, the US beef production in September was 986,000 tons, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year. The beef production from January to September was 8.997 million tons, a decrease of 0.2% year-on-year. In terms of trade, the beef exports of the United States, Brazil and Australia all increased year-on-year in September. From January to September, the US beef exports were 1.021 million tons, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year; Brazilian beef exports were 2.089 million tons, an increase of 27.8% year-on-year; Australian beef exports were 2.09 million tons, an increase of 27.8% year-on-year; and Australian beef exports were 1.1 million tons, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year. 967,000 tons, up 24.5% year-on-year. In terms of price, the price of US beef continued to fall slightly, but still remained at a high level. Converted at the exchange rate of the same period, the price of beef in October was 54.92 yuan/kg. The price of Brazilian beef continued to rise. Converted at the exchange rate of the same period, the price of beef in October was 32.85 yuan/kg. (IV) Lamb In September, Australia exported 54,000 tons of lamb (49,000 tons of sheep meat and 5,000 tons of goat meat), up 5.2% year-on-year. From January to September, it exported 487,000 tons of lamb (451,000 tons of sheep meat and 36,000 tons of goat meat), up 19.1% year-on-year; of which 95,000 tons of lamb were exported to China, down 22.8% year-on-year. 2 International Animal Product Price Index (I) Meat In October, the FAO meat price index rose slightly, among which the prices of poultry, beef and lamb rose, and the price of pork fell. FAO meat