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Core tip: The North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) recently finalized the 2026 quota plan for pollock: the quota for pollock in the Gulf of Alaska is reduced by 25% to 134,000 tons, while the quota for pollock in the Bering Sea remains unchanged at 1,375,000 tons. Despite the significant reduction in the Gulf of Alaska quota, since the Bering Sea still accounts for over 90% of the total U.S. pollock production, the industry generally believes that this adjustment will have limited impact on the global supply and demand situation for pollock. However, the reduction in quotas reveals a signal from the U.S. fishery management that they are shifting towards a "more conservative" approach in resource assessment uncertainty.

Core tip: According to UCN, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council (NPFMC) Advisory Committee unanimously adopted the Scientific and Statistical Committee's (SSC) recommendation on December 4 to reduce the 2026 quota for Alaska pollock by 26%, and submitted the proposal to the full committee for a final vote. The resolution is expected to be formally adopted by December 9.

According to the proposal, the total quota for Alaska pollock in the Alaska Gulf will drop to 139,498 tons in 2026, significantly lower than the 186,245 tons in 2025. The quota for the Bering Sea is set at 1.375 million tons, nearly unchanged from the 1.389 million tons in 2025. The quota for the Aleutian Islands remains at 19,000 tons. Additionally, the advisory panel has adjusted the quota recommendations for Pacific cod, with the quota for Bering Sea Pacific cod decreasing by 8% to 123,077 tons in 2026, and the quota for the Aleutian Islands increasing by 6% to 8,433 tons. Prior to this, the latest survey by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) showed that the biomass of Alaska pollock in the eastern Bering Sea decreased by 30% year-on-year to 3.8 million tons, below the historical average of 4.6 million tons. However, the latest scientific assessment could not be completed due to the U.S. government shutdown, and all quota recommendations for 2026 are based on 2024 data. Committee members criticized the "unprecedented" issue of the scientific assessment and pointed out that the Trump administration's cuts to NOAA's scientific staff had negatively impacted resource assessment work. Several committee members expressed strong concern over the continued reduction in the scope of the Alaska Gulf survey, noting that the survey ship used in the recent bottom trawl survey was fewer than in previous years, and the number of survey stations decreased by 17%. Some members questioned whether the current survey design truly reflects changes in the ecosystem, pointing out that some fishermen have reported that pollock schools are moving into areas occupied by Pacific cod and Pacific halibut. Possibility of changes in specific quotas Given the controversy surrounding the scientific assessment, the committee passed a motion with 14 votes to 4 to explore updating the 2026 quotas for Pacific cod and Alaska pollock after obtaining the latest 2025 survey data next year. Supporters believe that updated data will provide more scientific basis for quota setting, helping to alleviate economic pressure on Alaskan communities and processing businesses. Opponents argue that this move may disrupt some established rules and point to operational uncertainties, including how to coordinate the adjustment of cod quotas with other species.