브라질 콩류 인사이트

USDA and Brazilian agency Conab typically underestimate Brazil’s soybean harvest in their initial forecasts, as they have done for 7 of the past 10 years. The USDA will release its forecast for Brazil’s 2025/26 production on May 12, while Conab will do so a few months later. However, last week, a USDA representative in Brazil estimated the 2025/26 soybean harvest at a record 173 million tons, 2% more than this season. The USDA forecasts soybean production in 2024/25 to be 169 million tons, in line with last year’s initial estimate. Despite the record harvest, global soybean stocks will not rise to the previously high levels predicted. According to the US Department of Agriculture’s (FAS) Foreign Agricultural Service, Brazil, the world’s largest producer (40% of global production) and exporter of soybeans, will increase its production by 2% compared to the current season to a record 173 million tons due to an increase in the area sown from 47.3 to 48.2 million hectares and ...

The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) is estimating that Brazil will export 15.56 million tons of soybeans in March, which is an increase of 100,000 tons from their prior estimate. The all-time monthly record is 15.7 million tons of soybean exports in April of 2021. Anec indicated that the March exports could reach

Last week was marked by firm prices in the physical market despite volatility. At this time, premiums remain very high, supporting short-term indications. This situation is atypical, as we are in a seasonal period of crop arrival – a record cycle in Brazil – while logistical difficulties sustain the need for physical product for China.