브라질 곡물 및 시리얼 인사이트

The wheat market in Brazil is in the off-season and with low liquidity. The retraction of internal negotiations and strong competition with Argentine cereal are pressuring spot market prices. According to information released by the Itaú BBA AgroMensal report, prices fell 2% in Paraná (R$ 78.62/bag) and 4% in Rio Grande do Sul (R$ 70.04/bag) between May and June. Mills are supplied, and producers are waiting for better quotations to negotiate.

Brazil's corn harvest for 2024-25 is expected to be the second largest in the country's history, with a projection of 127 million tons, according to a study by Joana Colussi, Gary Schnitkey, and Nick Paulson from the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics at the University of Illinois. The volume surpasses last year's record and previous estimates, driven by favorable rainfall in April and May, which benefited the main producing regions of the second crop, responsible for 78% of the total harvest.

According to TF Agroeconômica, the wheat market in Southern Brazil faces significant challenges for the 2025 harvest, especially in Rio Grande do Sul. Although Emater projects an area of 1.19 million hectares, cooperatives, grain traders, and producers estimate a maximum of 1 million hectares. Low base fertilization and excessive rainfall that delayed planting indicate a production between 3.0 and 3.3 million tons, which could reduce the national projection by Conab by up to 1 million tons. Additionally, there was seed disposal, signaling a 65% reduction in planned use.