"Rice production expected to be 3,551,000 tons... Harvester prices stronger than last year"
As the shipment of mid-season rice begins in earnest, the price of rice at the origin continues to decline, and it has been observed that the price of rice for this harvest year will be stronger than last year.
The price of rice at the origin as of October 25, announced by the National Data Agency on October 28, was 229,612 won per 80 kg, a 1.5% decrease from 233,032 won on October 15.
The price of rice at the origin had reached a peak of 247,952 won on October 5, and has been on a downward trend for two consecutive weeks. This is attributed to the nationwide start of the shipment of 2025 rice in October. However, the decline has somewhat eased, which is analyzed to be due to the rice processing centers adjusting the amount and timing of rice purchases and showing a wait-and-see attitude as the quality of rice is expected to decline due to the autumnal rains, leading to fluctuations in production.
Gang Hyeong-jun, a researcher at the GSnJ Institute, said, "As the quality of rice is expected to decline compared to last year after the Chuseok holiday, the wait-and-see attitude of the rice processing centers is deepening," and added, "The slowdown in the decline in prices is due to producers with high expectations for prices not actively selling, even though they are expected to decline."
Meanwhile, the Korea Rural Economic Institute predicted that the price of rice for this harvest year will be higher than last year. The "November Rice Observation Monthly Report" released by the Korea Rural Economic Institute on October 27 predicted that the average price of rice for this harvest year (October to December) will be stronger than last year (184,700 won). This is due to the analysis that the rice production this year will be less than initially expected, making it likely that supply and demand will balance. The Korea Rural Economic Institute estimated this year's expected rice production at 3,551,000 tons.
This is a 0.6% decrease from the estimated production of 3,574,000 tons for 2025 rice announced by the National Data Agency in early October.
Damage from rice blast and rice sheath blight in regions such as Gangwon, Gyeongbuk, and Gyeongnam due to the autumnal rains has led to a decrease in production units compared to the previous forecast, which has affected the decrease. The production units expected by the Korea Rural Economic Institute for this year is 524 kg per 10a, which is 0.6% lower than the 527 kg expected by the National Data Agency.