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According to a recent report from USDA’s Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN), USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service in Canberra projects that cheese production in 2025 will increase to 375,000 tonnes, up 2.7% from a downwardly revised 2024 estimate of 365,000 tonnes. If forecasts are met, 2025 cheese production would be the third-highest on record, although it would not exceed 2023.

FAS/Canberra forecasts cheese production to lift to 375,000 MT in 2025, a 2.7% increase on the downward revised 2024 estimate of 365,000 MT, according to a recent US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report. If realised, this would be the third highest level of cheese production on record, but equal to a more recent peak in 2023. The current record of 413,000 MT was set in 2002 when milk production in Australia was at its peak and 24% higher than the forecast production for 2025. The primary reason for the higher expectation is directly related to the small increase in forecast milk production. Over the last decade, there has been a trend of milk processors channeling more and more milk towards cheese production at the expense of other processed dairy products, during which milk production has broadly declined. This trend has plateaued in 2023 and is estimated to dip in 2024 with a rise in SMP and butter production at the expense of cheese

The sharp upward movement of cattle prices is expected to continue for the last week of trading for 2024 as restockers and traders ensure they won't have feed in paddocks going wanting. What has emerged is that producers are looking to milk shorter-term opportunities on the back of recent rain, rather than rebuilding herds further. Agents say in many areas, that is because breeding numbers are generally at what is considered capacity and in others the risk appetite is not there, given season volatility. ANZ's beef and cattle experts say there is clear evidence of the shorter-term focus in the premium restocker steers are currently trading at to heifers. ANZ's latest commodity insights report tips cattle prices to continue to rise as the export boom rolls on and producers look for light stock to take advantage of current grass growth. The potential presented from the United States shortage of beef is well-known but in recent weeks some analysts have indicated the best of that oppor