그리스 올리브유 인사이트

Olimerca.- After collecting official data from producing countries and estimates from its Executive Secretariat, the International Olive Council (IOC) expects world olive oil production for the 2024/25 campaign to reach 3,375,500 tonnes, an increase of 32% compared to the previous campaign. In addition, imports and exports are expected to exceed 1.2 million tonnes. Most of this production, i.e. 3,193,000 tonnes and 95% of the world total, comes from IOC member countries, which represents an increase of 33% compared to the previous campaign. EU producing countries as a whole expect a production of 1,973,000 tonnes, which represents an increase of 29%. The rest of the IOC member countries should produce a total of 1,220,000 tonnes (+ 40%). In the case of Spain, as we can see in the table below, there is an estimated production of 1,290,000 tons, which would represent an increase of 51% compared to the previous campaign.

With the sole lever of pressure being the ever-lower Spanish olive oil prices, which are a derivative product of a peculiar situation, the trade is attempting to bring Jaen pricing to the Peloponnese, paving the way for selling out this year's small Greek harvest at a time when many will need to write a sale, in January 2025. Olive oil is an agricultural commodity. It has a satisfactory shelf life under appropriate storage conditions and an economic value that should fluctuate daily and always based on fundamentals. In mid-December 2025, after 2 years of significant global deficit and in the midst of a global harvest that seems to be roughly within historical normals, “prices” have “fallen” to levels that do not seem sustainable in the medium term for extensive olive cultivation. Calmness is required in the immediate future. The above quotation marks are included because the market situation is to some extent artificial and largely uncontrolled. With the Trojan Horse of any commercial transactions registered on the free Spanish traceability platforms, in the coming days there is planned to be a serious reduction in the domestic prices paid by the trade, even below 4.00 euros per kilo. This is a given.

Evolution of average prices According to the latest statistics (“dashboard”) from the EC for last November, the average prices of the three main categories have clearly been oriented downwards in the markets of Spain, Greece and Italy.