As of Thursday (January 2), the delivery price of first-grade French wheat at the port of Rouen, France, was $248/ton, up $4 from a week ago. The price range in the past 52 weeks was $209 to $277 per ton.
The price of second-grade wheat in the upper river of Argentina was $231/ton, up $3; the price of US No. 2 hard red winter wheat was $252/ton, down $1; the price of US No. 2 soft red winter wheat was $235/ton, down $2.
From the trend of the futures market, on Friday (January 3), the most active March wheat futures on the Euronext closed at 233 euros/ton, up 0.25 euros or 0.11% from a week ago, which was also the second consecutive week of increase; Chicago wheat fell 3.16% during the same period.
In the past year, the pan-European exchange has Wheat futures on the Euronext fell first and then rose. Pan-European wheat futures prices fell to a four-year low due to strong Black Sea exports and ample global supply.
However, Russia's early growth of winter wheat in the next season was poor, domestic wheat prices in Russia rose, and the government took measures to restrict exports, such as raising tariffs and cutting export quotas in the first half of 2025. These factors helped support the rise in European wheat prices. However, due to the poor wheat harvests in France and Germany, the export supply has decreased, and fierce export competition is the main factor restricting the rise in European wheat futures and spot prices.
Strategic Grains Company lowered its forecast for EU wheat exports in 2024/25 to the lowest level in six years in its monthly report on December 19, but with the expected increase in wheat production next year, the EU Exports are expected to rebound in 2025/26.
Fundamental data: EU wheat production is expected to increase in 2025/26
On December 19, Strategic Grains Company predicted for the first time that EU soft wheat production in 2025/26 will reach 126.6 million tons, an increase of 11% year-on-year; soft wheat exports are estimated to be 29.3 million tons, an increase of 5.5 million tons or 23.1% year-on-year. Strategic Grains lowered EU wheat production in 2024/25 to 114.2 million tons, lower than the 114.4 million tons forecast last month, which is also the lowest production in 12 years; wheat exports in 2024/25 were lowered to 23.8 million tons, 1.4 million tons lower than the 25.2 million tons forecast last month, which is also the lowest export level in six years, because the EU wheat quotation Due to the lack of competitiveness of Black Sea supplies, exports have been slow so far this year.
On December 19, the European Commission lowered the EU soft wheat production in 2024/25 to 111,857 million tons, 431,000 tons lower than the 112,617 million tons forecast last month, and 13.33 million tons or 10.6% lower than the 125.185 million tons last year (the forecast last month was 10.0% lower year-on-year), which is also the lowest in 12 years, because the unfavorable planting conditions in autumn last year led to a reduction in planting area, and rainy weather affected crop growth and harvesting. Wheat imports are expected to be 7 million tons, the same as last month's forecast, and lower than 9.58 million tons last year; wheat exports to third countries are estimated at 25 million tons, the same as last month's forecast, and 35.33 million tons last year.
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