아르헨티나 소맥 인사이트

According to a survey by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA), released this week, continuous rains over the eastern agricultural region of Argentina are hindering both the progress of wheat and barley seeding and the harvest of soybeans and corn. In the case of wheat, planting advanced 7.1 percentage points during the week, reaching 10.5% of the projected area of 6.7 million hectares (Mha) for the 2025/26 crop.

As of May 21, Argentine farmers pre-sold 1.41 million tons of wheat for the 2025/26 crop year, up 1.01 million tons from a week ago, compared to 1.58 million tons sold in the same period last year. Last week, 140,000 tons were pre-sold. Argentine farmers have also sold 13.3 million tons of wheat for the 2024/25 crop year, up 190,000 tons from a week ago, compared to 10.08 million tons sold in the same period last year. Last week, 140,000 tons were sold. As of May 21, the spot price for wheat in Argentina was 228,000 pesos per ton, compared to 227,000 pesos a week ago. Wheat export license applications for the 2024/25 crop year are at 8.07 million, up from 7.95 million last week, and 1.45 million in the same period last year. Recently, the Argentine government lowered export taxes on oilseeds and grains to encourage sales. From January 27 to June 30, the wheat export tax was reduced from 12% to 9.5%. The Ministry of Economy (on May 20) stated that the wheat export tax reduction would be extended to March 2026 to encourage farmers to expand wheat cultivation. On May 12, 2025, the US Department of Agriculture estimated Argentina's wheat production for the 2024/25 crop year at 18.54 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and higher than the previous year's 15.85 million tons; wheat production for the 2025/26 crop year is projected at 20 million tons. On May 14, 2025, the Rosario Grain Exchange first predicted Argentina's wheat production for the 2025/26 crop year at 21 million tons, an increase of 900,000 tons year-on-year, as planted area is expected to increase to 7.2 million hectares.

Weather conditions favorable for sowing winter wheat in Argentina and spring wheat in Canada, the Russian Federation and the US increased pressure on new harvest wheat quotes, which fell by 1.7-2.8% per day, completely losing last week's growth. According to the USDA's weekly report, as of May 25, 87% of the planned area was sown