Raw materials for Russian pollock are operating at a high level, and the supply of PBO fish fillets in the B production season is decreasing for both the U.S. and Russia.
Despite the strong opposition from Chinese processing factories to the frequent price increases of Russian raw materials, Russian suppliers still have no plans to lower prices. According to the suppliers, the Chinese factories currently purchasing pollock at high prices are mainly for the domestic dried fish market, not for export.
For twice-frozen pollock, the current raw material and finished product prices are extremely mismatched, and European buyers are also unwilling to pay high prices unless the processing factories have orders to fulfill, otherwise it is unlikely they will chase higher prices.
Moreover, the European market is in the summer season, with people on vacation abroad, and the circulation speed of finished pollock products is relatively slow. European merchants still have some inventory from earlier this year, which they purchased at low prices, with block-frozen prices around $2,500/ton. If calculated based on the current raw material costs, the FOB price of block-frozen products should be around $3,100/ton. If adding $100/ton for shipping costs (to Europe), as well as the 13.7% tariff on Russian raw materials, the cost of twice-frozen prices is almost equivalent to the U.S. once-frozen prices.
Sources said that EU buyers are still negotiating with Chinese procurement, but due to the holiday season, there is not much concrete news at present, and more changes are expected by the end of August or September.
In addition, if the U.S. PBO production in the second quarter continues to be low, it will drive up the prices of twice-frozen products. As of July 12, U.S. PBO production in the second season decreased by 9% year-on-year to 18,612 tons; while the cumulative production year-to-date increased by 9% year-on-year to 77,560 tons.
"If we compare the U.S. production in the first and second seasons, PBO sales have increased compared to last year. However, the inventory of the first season has basically been sold out, and buyers are focusing on the second season, and so far, the sales of PBO in the second season have decreased," a source said.
Another source said: "Regarding the Russian PBO production, we expect exports to Europe to decrease in the second half of the year. Russia does not have more products to supply, either they are sold out, or they are sanctioned, or they do not have an EU number."
The well-known Russian manufacturer Norebo Holding is still on the EU sanctions list, and four out of five new ships of the Russian Fishing Company (RFC) have not obtained EU permits, and one ship of Okeanrybflot also does not have an EU number. However, the ships built by Okeanrybflot and RFC in Turkey have EU permits.