Tariffs Accelerate Trade Shift, China Replaces US as Vietnam's Largest Cashew Export Market
Indian Cashew Enterprises Forced to Halt Production
India, a major cashew consumption country with 31% of global consumption, is facing challenges as processing companies in Andhra Pradesh are compelled to collectively suspend production for two weeks due to low cashew kernel prices and weak domestic demand, leaving many workers unpaid. Recently, domestic cashew kernel prices have plummeted by 70 rupees per kilogram, severely impacting local processors. In stark contrast, Indian cashew export prices have continuously risen since February, with W320 grade cashew kernels reaching a three-year high for the same period.
Vietnamese Cashew Exports to US Drop 20%, Surge Over 40% to China
Vietnamese processors remain caught in the uncertainty of US tariff policies. Currently, Vietnamese products face a 46% import tariff, but recent Bloomberg reports about an imminent trade delegation agreement potentially reducing tariffs to 20-25% have stirred market excitement. These policy fluctuations have significantly impacted Vietnamese exports to the US—customs data shows May cashew exports to the US declined 10% year-on-year to 17,360 tons, while export value paradoxically increased 15% to $117.6 million. In the first five months of 2025, Vietnamese cashew exports to the US plummeted 22% to 59,750 tons, but total export value remained essentially unchanged at $406.9 million.
China has replaced the US as Vietnam's largest cashew export market. In May, exports to China surged 44% year-on-year to 24,620 tons, with export value skyrocketing 67% to $156.4 million. From January to May 2025, Vietnam's cumulative cashew exports to China reached 65,970 tons, valued at $414.5 million, representing a 22% increase in export volume and a 41% increase in export value.
In the first five months of 2025, Vietnam's total cashew exports were 276,760 tons, valued at $1.9 billion. While export volume decreased 5% year-on-year, export value paradoxically grew 19%. Beyond the US and Chinese markets, the Netherlands, UAE, and Germany are also important export destinations, with exports to the UAE showing significant growth while exports to the Netherlands face considerable