China Maize (Corn) insights

On June 18, the General Administration of Customs released China's import and export data for May 2025. In May, China imported 16.55 million tons of grains, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%; from January to May, cumulative grain imports totaled 48.37 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%. Specifically: Corn and Corn Flour In May, corn and corn flour imports were 190,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 81.6%; From January to May, cumulative corn and corn flour imports were 630,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 93.7%. Soybeans In May, soybean imports were 13.92 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 36.2%; From January to May, cumulative soybean imports were 37.11 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%. Wheat and Wheat Flour In May, wheat and wheat flour imports were 560,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 70.1%; From January to May, cumulative wheat and wheat flour imports were 1.61 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 80.1%. Rice, Paddy Rice, and Rice Flour In May, rice, paddy rice, and rice flour imports were 300,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 77.6%; From January to May, cumulative rice, paddy rice, and rice flour imports were 1.22 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 86.8%. Barley In May, barley imports were 840,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 48.0%; From January to May, cumulative barley imports were 4.52 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 40.9%. Sorghum In May, sorghum imports were 380,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 43.5%; From January to May, cumulative sorghum imports were 1.68 million tons, a year

The recent trade agreement between China and the United States has brought reflections to the international corn market. According to an analysis by Grão Direto released this Monday (16), the temporary reduction of tariffs on American products tends to create an environment of greater stability, with expectations of a slight increase in US exports to the Asian market. "The impact on corn is limited, since China still imports low volumes of the North American cereal," the analysis assessed.

According to a fresh forecast by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), global corn stocks could plummet to a 12-year low by the end of the 2025-26 season. Behind this trend is sustained strong demand – the supply side will require extraordinary crop yields to avoid further tightening. The USDA's May 12 estimate suggests global market closing stocks could reach 277.8 million tons, compared to the market's expectation of 297.4 million tons. This represents a 3% annual decline and a 16% drop from the 2023-24 season – marking the lowest level since 2013-14. The analysis indicates the stock-to-use ratio for 2025-26 could be 18.9% – the lowest value since 2012-13. Global supply will remain tight, which also carries price increase risks. Excluding China, global stocks would grow 7% compared to the previous year, yet still show the second-lowest level in 13 years. This suggests China is currently a demand factor rather than a stabilizing force in the market. The USDA expects a ...