Argentina Wheat insights

According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (BCBA), water excesses continue to negatively impact the summer grain harvest and delay wheat planting in Argentina. So far, 23.6% of the 6.7 million hectares projected for the 2025/26 crop have been planted, which represents a delay of 8 percentage points compared to the average of the last five years.

The Brazilian wheat market remains slow, especially in the Southern region, given the prospect of a full harvest in Argentina and the possibility of a significant reduction in planted area in Brazil. This assessment comes from the International Center for Economic Analyses and Agricultural Market Studies (Ceema), in a report published this Thursday (5), with data referring to the week from May 30 to June 5.

As of May 21, Argentine farmers pre-sold 1.41 million tons of wheat for the 2025/26 crop year, up 1.01 million tons from a week ago, compared to 1.58 million tons sold in the same period last year. Last week, 140,000 tons were pre-sold. Argentine farmers have also sold 13.3 million tons of wheat for the 2024/25 crop year, up 190,000 tons from a week ago, compared to 10.08 million tons sold in the same period last year. Last week, 140,000 tons were sold. As of May 21, the spot price for wheat in Argentina was 228,000 pesos per ton, compared to 227,000 pesos a week ago. Wheat export license applications for the 2024/25 crop year are at 8.07 million, up from 7.95 million last week, and 1.45 million in the same period last year. Recently, the Argentine government lowered export taxes on oilseeds and grains to encourage sales. From January 27 to June 30, the wheat export tax was reduced from 12% to 9.5%. The Ministry of Economy (on May 20) stated that the wheat export tax reduction would be extended to March 2026 to encourage farmers to expand wheat cultivation. On May 12, 2025, the US Department of Agriculture estimated Argentina's wheat production for the 2024/25 crop year at 18.54 million tons, unchanged from the previous month and higher than the previous year's 15.85 million tons; wheat production for the 2025/26 crop year is projected at 20 million tons. On May 14, 2025, the Rosario Grain Exchange first predicted Argentina's wheat production for the 2025/26 crop year at 21 million tons, an increase of 900,000 tons year-on-year, as planted area is expected to increase to 7.2 million hectares.