Russia Wheat insights

The share of the "Big South" regions in the export of wheat from Russia in the 2025/26 agricultural season is forecast to decrease to 55%, according to the CEO of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR), Dmitry Rylko. "The key feature of the current season regarding wheat is that the regions of the so-called 'Big South' will contribute only 24.5 million tons to the export potential of wheat, and this will constitute approximately 55% of the total Russian export," Rylko stated at the "Agroinvestor: PRO Crop Farming" conference on Friday in Moscow. "Such a ratio has not been seen in the entire history of our export, which has been at least 25 years. Usually, the 'Big South' contributes 70-75 percent, and there was even one season when it contributed 89%," he added. According to him, this indicates that a significant part of the 44 million tons of wheat export potential will come from distant regions. "Our railways, our road transport, and our water transport need to move a near-record volume from distant regions - the center, the Volga region, the Urals, the Western..."

In the first three months of the agricultural year (July–September) Russian wheat exports amounted to 10.9 million tons, decreasing by almost 29% year-on-year. The poor start of the season is a result of limited demand from importers. Buyers of Russian wheat are hoping for a price decrease from the current $226 to at least $220 per ton. Their expectations are supported by the growth in export potential of the Southern Hemisphere countries. Wheat exports from Russia in July–September amounted to 10.9 million tons, 28.8% less year-on-year, according to analysts from SovEcon. The company cites this as the lowest value since the 2022/23 season. According to the forecast by Rusagrotrans, in September the volume of exports will be 4.3–4.5 million tons. This is 14.5–18.3% lower than the same period last year. July–September are the first months of the agricultural year in the grain market. Usually, according to the director of SovEcon, Andrey Sizov, they account for the maximum volume of ...

According to data from the Russian Agricultural Products Export Development Center, in August 2025, China purchased approximately 3,600 tons of Russian wheat, totaling over 800,000 U.S. dollars, making it the largest supply volume of the year in 2025. In August 2025, Russia exported approximately 3.5 million tons of wheat, with a total export value exceeding 780 million U.S. dollars, marking the highest record for the year. The physical supply volume increased by nearly 1.8 times compared to July 2025. The top five countries importing Russian wheat include Egypt (24%), Turkey (9%), Israel (5%), Bangladesh (5%), and Sudan (5%). According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2024, China imported Russian wheat with a total value of 87,252.2 million U.S. dollars, an increase of over 1.5 times compared to 34,710 million U.S. dollars in 2023. On March 18, the Russian Agricultural Products Export Center informed the satellite communication agency that, according to preliminary statistics, in 2024, Russia exported over 8.3 million tons of agricultural products to China, with a total export value of approximately 7.4 billion U.S. dollars. Among the agricultural products exported from Russia to China, the largest export volume was rapeseed oil (13%), followed by barley (10%), sunflower oil and peas (each 8%), and soybeans (7%). China became the main importer of Russian agricultural products in 2024, maintaining this position for two consecutive years.