Grain & Cereals insights

From March 4 to March 11, 2026, the benchmark price for Russian wheat and mixed wheat was $229.8 per ton, with an export tariff of zero; the benchmark price last week was $229.9 per ton, with an export tariff of 0 rubles per ton; from December 10 to December 24, 2025, the export tariff was 0 rubles. From July 9 to August 5, Russia reduced the export tax on wheat to zero, and the same was true for the week of August 15. For reference, the tariff in January 2025 was as high as 4699.6 rubles ($59.87) per ton. The benchmark price for barley was set at $231.4 per ton, with an export tariff of 0; the benchmark price the previous week was $231.4, with an export tariff of 0. The benchmark price for corn was $214.3 per ton, with an export tariff of zero rubles per ton; the benchmark price the previous week was $207.0, with an export tariff of zero rubles per ton. On July 24, 2025, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture raised the threshold price for corn and barley tariffs by 1,000 rubles per ton, from 16,875 rubles to 17,875 rubles per ton, effective immediately. On June 21, 2024, the Russian Minister of Agriculture stated that the adjusted threshold prices for grain tariffs would take effect from July 1, 2024. On May 31, 2024, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture raised the price basis for calculating grain tariffs by 1000 rubles per ton, with the tariff threshold for wheat rising from 17,000 rubles per ton to 18,000 rubles per ton; the tariff threshold for corn and barley was raised from 15,875 rubles to 16,875 rubles per ton. On May 29, 2023, the Russian government raised the threshold prices for grain tariffs by 2000 rubles per ton. Starting from June 1, 2023, the base price for calculating wheat tariffs was raised from 15,000 rubles to 17,000 rubles per ton, and the export base for corn and barley was also raised by 2000 rubles to 15,875 rubles per ton. On June 30, 2022, Russia announced that from July 6, 2022, the tariff would be calculated in rubles instead of dollars. The calculation formula is to subtract the base of 15000 rubles per ton from the benchmark price of wheat and then multiply by 70%. The benchmark price of wheat is calculated by the Moscow Exchange based on the FOB contract prices reported by exporters. The export base prices for barley and corn were also changed from $185 per ton to 13,875 rubles, with the calculation formula being to subtract 13,875 rubles from the benchmark price and then multiply by 70%. The Russian Ministry of Agriculture implemented the formula for calculating taxes starting from June 2, 2021. On Monday, the Russian ruble exchange rate was 77.37 rubles to 1 dollar, compared to 76.93 last week. Note: 1 dollar equals 77.37 rubles.

The Philippines reducing imports during the peak of domestic harvest is causing short-term pressure on Vietnam's rice exports, but the impact is assessed to be only temporary.

In the March report, experts from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) increased the forecasts for the production of winter crops (including wheat, barley, and canola) in Australia in the 2025/26 MY from 66.3 to 68.4 million tons, due to better-than-expected yields, compared to the December estimates, which is 13% higher than last year and 15% higher than the 5-year average (59.5 million tons), and will be the second-largest winter crop yield in the country's history. Harvest results indicate that yields exceeded expectations, particularly in Western Australia and Victoria, for which winter crop production forecasts were increased by 2% and 11%, respectively. Compared to the December estimates, the production forecasts for the main winter crops have been increased as follows: According to ABARES, the area sown with winter crops in 2025/26 MY has increased to a record 25.2 million hectares, particularly in Queensland, South Australia, ...