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El Niño is already on the horizon, but its direct effects on Portugal will be very limited, according to information from the Portuguese Institute of the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA). The European Commission, through the Joint Research Centre (JRC), was the last international body to practically "bet" on the recurrence of this phenomenon, which is expected to last until 2027. According to the JRC report, El Niño is expected to reach "very high" intensity, possibly "very strong" levels, and may even surpass previous historical cases such as the one 12 years ago. The European Commission particularly warns of the risk to food security related to drought, which is already occurring in an environment characterized by high energy and fertilizer prices, and "could put hundreds of millions more people at risk." Weather extremes may affect vital crops, such as durum wheat, which may suffer the most, but also corn, rice, soybeans, and winter wheat. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ...

The start of this year's harvest across Italy has "frozen" prices of domestic durum wheat, which are already at very low levels. On June 15, 2026, the National Single Committee (CUN) chose not to set indicative prices for any category of durum wheat in any of the country's four geographical regions. At the same time, producer prices recorded by the Ismea institute show a general stability, with the exception of three out of eleven markets under surveillance –Milan, Naples and Matera– where a decline was observed. At the international level, durum wheat prices are showing a downturn. This decline is partly due to the weakening of the US dollar, which was negatively affected by the announcement of a peace agreement between the USA and Iran. This development reduced the so-called "risk premium" associated with geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf and Lebanon. Moreover, price pressures were reinforced by news that the risk of drought in Canada has now been eliminated, although ...

Durum wheat quotations remain on the decline and the Cun (National Unique Commission) does not impact market dynamics. The structure of the instrument is now under review by administrative justice: the Grano Salus association from Foggia has indeed filed an extraordinary appeal to the State Council. The act is based on significant governance concerns − such as the choice to set the headquarters in Rome instead of Foggia and the exclusion of the association from the Price Definition Commission − but from the sector analysis perspective, the most critical issue concerns the price formation mechanism. The central point lies in the geographical fragmentation of quotations which, according to the association's appeal, distorts the correct valuation of the cereal. The president of Grano Salus, former senator Saverio De Bonis, explains to L’Informatore Agrario. He is a historic promoter of the Cun regulatory discipline and for years an active member of the Cun Commission: "The ...