According to international media reports, on July 31, the Indian government announced the release of 20 million tons of rice reserves. Following the announcement, in early August, Thai rice exporters' prices dropped by $10-15 per ton compared to the previous week. Not only Thailand, but also rice prices in Pakistan and India saw a decline. This situation put pressure on the overall rice market, forcing countries to lower rice prices to enhance competitiveness.
However, at the beginning of this week, prices for all types of exported rice in Vietnam increased by an average of $10 per ton compared to last weekend. Specifically, various types of fragrant rice prices remained at $510-517 per ton. Various companies stated that due to Filipino importers rushing to stockpile before the country's implementation of a 60-day import suspension on September 1, Vietnamese rice prices rose against the global trend.
Chairman Phan Thai Binh of Can Tho City Zhongan High-Tech Agriculture Co., Ltd. analyzed that since the end of 2024, continuous supply increases have caused global and Vietnamese rice prices to fall consecutively. In particular, India's latest move may cause rice prices to further decline, making it difficult to return to previous highs in the medium term. However, it is still difficult to predict in the long term because agriculture is highly dependent on weather, and current climate change has led to increasingly erratic weather.
Mr. Phan Thai Binh believes there is no need to overly worry about India releasing reserves, as its products are not in the same niche market as Vietnamese rice. However, when supply is sufficient, it will gradually lower rice prices, forming a new lower price benchmark.
Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), Du Ha Nam, admitted that the global market is generally oversupplied. Over the years, Thailand, the world's second-largest rice exporter, still faces many difficulties, with export volume down 30% year-on-year. However, as of now, Vietnam's export volume continues to grow, surpassing 5.5 million tons.
Mr. Du Ha Nam emphasized: "It is expected that Vietnam's rice export volume will reach at least 8 million tons in 2025, becoming the world's second-largest for the first time. The average export price of Vietnamese rice is $514 per ton, which, although lower than recent years, is still higher than that of other countries." (End)