필리핀 쌀 insights

The Philippine government announced a 60-day suspension of rice imports starting from September 1 to protect local production from the impact of a significant drop in rice prices. The Philippines is currently the world's largest rice importer, with an import volume of nearly 4.8 million tons last year, and also the largest export market for Vietnamese rice, with an export volume of 3.6 million tons, accounting for 40% of Vietnam's total rice exports. In the first seven months of this year, Vietnam's total rice exports amounted to 5.5 million tons, with an export value of $2.81 billion, of which the Philippines continued to be Vietnam's largest export market, accounting for 42.6% of the total export value. However, the export value to the Philippines decreased by 13.5% year-on-year. Many exporting companies believe that despite the slowdown in the Philippine market, there is no need to be overly concerned, as companies have recently signed new orders with significantly improved prices and are actively exploring other markets in the ASEAN region and South Africa. Rice industry experts pointed out that the Philippines is only temporarily suspending imports for 60 days, not completely closing the market, and more importantly, the Philippines still values rice supply from Vietnam. In addition, many companies are still promoting market diversification for exports, reducing dependence on individual markets, and expanding the varieties of exported rice to avoid risks caused by sudden changes in import policies. In the current context, companies are shifting their exports to new markets and strengthening negotiations with some regional market customers to compensate for the decline during the Philippines' suspension of imports. The Director of the Import and Export Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, Nguyen Anh Son, stated that after the Philippines suspends imports for 60 days, the Ministry of Industry and Trade has reported to the government and suggested that relevant departments resolve the issue through diplomatic channels. Year-end outlook is optimistic Data from the Customs Department of the Ministry of Finance of Vietnam shows that in July 2025, Vietnam's rice exports were 790,000 tons, a significant increase of 52.1% month-on-month. The cumulative export volume for the first seven months of 2025 was 5.51 million tons, an increase of 3.9% year-on-year. However, due to a significant drop in export prices, the export value was only $2.83 billion, a decrease of 15.4% year-on-year (a reduction of $514 million). Changes in import policies in some markets, including the Philippines' two-month suspension of imports, have had an impact on the rice industry, but the overall impact is not significant. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predicts that Vietnam's rice exports in 2025 may reach 8.2 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons from previous forecasts. The USDA noted that Vietnam's rice exports are expected to grow significantly in the last few months of 2025, driven by high demand from Africa and China. However, Vietnam's most important partner, the Philippines, will reduce imports by about 500,000 tons due to the implementation of a 60-day import restriction. But the Philippines' import volume in 2025 is still expected to reach 4.9 million tons, continuing to be the world's largest. The Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), Duong Ha Nam, expressed confidence that the total exports for 2025 will exceed 8 million tons and believes that Vietnam will continue to maintain its position as the world's second-largest rice exporter thanks to its established independent brand and popular quality.

The Vietnam Food Association has asked the country’s trade ministry to challenge a move by the Philippines to suspend rice imports for two months, with traders saying it will harm local production. Being Vietnam’s biggest rice buyer, the Philippines said that it would suspend rice imports for 60 days starting 1 September, in an effort

Philippines temporarily halts imports for 60 days causing export contracts to stall, inventory levels to rise, pushing Vietnamese businesses and farmers into a difficult situation amid the summer-autumn crop.