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Both soybean and soybean meal supplies have remained ample globally for much of 2024, and speculators are nearing year’s end with a new record short position in Chicago-traded soybean meal. In the week ended Dec. 17, money managers increased their net short position in CBOT soybean meal futures and options to a record 88,971 contracts, up more than 16,000 on the week. That beats the old record of 77,112 contracts from February 2020. Open interest in soybean meal futures and options hit a record high last month and the latest tally is near those levels. The market has been watching record U.S. soybean crushing rates as well as strong output in South America, creating ample meal stocks. Most-active CBOT meal futures last Tuesday dipped to $284.20 per short ton, the contract’s lowest since June 2020. Meal traded much of last week at the lowest mid-December levels in nine years before surging nearly 4% on Friday.

The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) report on soybeans, released in December, indicated a neutral outlook, with few changes in global figures. Soybean production in the United States and Brazil was maintained at 124.1 million and 169 million tons, respectively, while Argentine production increased to 52 million tons. According to Luiz Fernando Roque, Market Intelligence Coordinator at Hedgepoint Global Markets, the record harvest in South America, especially in Brazil, and a near-record harvest in the United States should result in the largest global production ever recorded, putting pressure on prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange in the coming weeks.

Global edible oil markets slid on Wednesday, as expectations for a record soybean crop in Brazil early next year and a new U.S. plan to allow gasoline sales with higher ethanol blending raised worries over vegetable oil demand, triggering a selloff. The prospect that Indonesia’s expanded biodiesel mandate may be implemented gradually added pressure on edible oil markets. Soybean oil prices traded in China dropped to a three-month low, while Malaysian palm oil futures lost more than 4% and U.S. bean oil BOcv1 slid 2.4%. “Vegetable oil complex is facing headwinds today as overall soybean supplies are likely to increase next year and there is a lack of clarity on implementation of biodiesel mandates in Indonesia,” said Pranav Bajoria, director at Singapore-based brokerage Comglobal Pte Ltd. “Indonesia’s plans to introduce B40 have been a key factor lifting prices in recent months. But Indonesian government has yet to allocate higher quotas for blending.”