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Industry forecast: Brazilian olive oil prices are expected to fall by more than 20% by 2025
Brazilian website "spacemoney" reported on December 26 that the price of olive oil in Brazil began to rise in 2023 and reached its peak in June 2024 after a whole year. Due to the sharp rise in prices, some supermarkets in Brazil even installed anti-theft seals for such products. The price increase is because Europe has experienced severe drought in the past two years, which has led to a significant reduction in olive production, thereby reducing the raw materials for olive oil production. Brazil's local olive oil production is very small, so the domestic market mainly relies on European supply, most of which comes from Portugal and Spain. According to statistics, the imports from these two countries account for 44% and 14% of Brazil's total olive oil imports, respectively. Leonardo Scandola, head of Latin American business at Filippo Berri Scandola noted: "The good news is that olive oil production in the Mediterranean basin will increase this year." According to EU data, EU countries will produce 29% more olive oil in the 2024/25 harvest season compared to the 2023/24 harvest season. This increase has already had an impact on olive oil prices in Europe. "In November alone, olive oil prices in Spain fell by 20% (month-on-month). This change will definitely be reflected in Brazil eventually." He said it may take several months for the price change to spread from Europe to Brazil. "Brazilian importers need to buy these cheaper olive oils. The goods they previously stocked cost more." "I think we will see (Brazilian olive oil prices) start to fall sharply from Easter next year. Compared with current prices, the drop may be more than 20%." Carlos Eduardo de Freitas Vian, professor at the University of São Paulo's Luis de Queiroz Agricultural Institute (Esalq-USP), said: "I think we will see (Brazilian olive oil prices) start to fall sharply from Easter next year. Compared with current prices, the drop may be more than 20%." Carlos Eduardo de Freitas Vian, professor at the University of São Paulo's Luis de Queiroz Agricultural Institute (Esalq-USP), said: "Brazilian importers need to buy these cheaper olive oils. The goods they previously stocked cost more." The director predicted: "I think that starting from Easter next year, we will see (Brazilian olive oil prices) start to fall sharply. Compared with current prices, the drop may be more than 20%." Vian also sees a downward trend in olive oil prices. “These goods need to go through a series of logistics, including shipping to Brazil and putting them on the shelves, and all this takes time. I think (Brazilian olive oil prices) will not start to fall until the middle of 2025,” he said.
Foodmate · 2024년 12월 30일

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