러시아 곡물 및 시리얼 인사이트

Core Tip: Foreign media reported on January 16: According to monitoring data from the Russian Grain Union, in the first half of this year (July to December 2024), Russia exported 34.257 million tons of grain, a decrease of 5.4% from 36.209 million tons in the same period of 2023/24. Among them, wheat exports increased by 0.7% to 30 million tons, barley exports decreased by 27% to 2.9 million tons, and corn exports decreased by 48% to 1.284 million tons.

In brief: •    Wheat could surpass 80% of total grain exports •    The Russian government has set a tariff quota of 10.6 million tons for grain exports The duty on wheat exports from Russia will be 4,245 rubles ($41.5) per ton from January 15, 2024, according to the Agriculture Ministry. Earlier, the government set a duty on wheat exports for January 13 and 14 at 4,346.1 rubles ($42.5) per ton, the ministry said. The duty on barley will be 2,542.9 rubles ($24.86) against 2,220.1 ($21.7) rubles set earlier. The duty on corn will be increased to 4,436.4 rubles ($43.4) from 4,366.5 rubles ($42.7) per ton. The rate of the export duty on wheat is calculated at an indicative price of $240.2 per ton, for barley - $204.7 per ton, for corn - $231.7 per ton. The floating duty on Russian grain exports has been in effect since June 2, 2021. The Ministry of Agriculture determines the amount of the duty for a period of one week.

According to the SovEcon analytical center, in January, wheat exports from Russia will amount to 1.8-2.2 million tons versus 3.6 million tons a year earlier. In the first two weeks of January, 0.9 million tons of wheat were shipped versus 1.4 million tons a year ago, analysts estimated, noting that exports slowed down amid a decrease in supply. The Russian Grain Union previously estimated that from January 1 to 10, Russia exported 480 thousand tons of the main grain crops - three times less than a year ago, when almost 1.5 million tons were shipped during this period. In particular, wheat supplies decreased by almost 57%, to 468 thousand tons. As of December 1, wheat reserves of agricultural producers amounted to 18.7 million tons versus 24.8 million tons a year ago. SovEcon estimates Russian wheat reserves at the end of the 2024/25 season at 10 million tons (6.3 million tons of market reserves + 3.7 million tons in the state intervention fund) against 20.2 million tons (16 million tons + 4.2 million tons) a year earlier. At the same time, prices for Russian wheat in the ports of Novorossiysk have increased by $7 since the beginning of December,