러시아 곡물 및 시리얼 인사이트

According to the SovEcon analytical center, wheat exports from Russia in July may amount to 2.4 million tons versus 1.2 million tons in June, Reuters writes. Analysts forecast possible barley exports at 400,000 tons, and corn at 300,000 tons. Last week, analysts raised the wheat export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 2.1 million tons, to 42.9 million tons after revising production potential: in June, SovEcon increased its estimate of wheat gross harvest by 2 million tons, to 83 million tons. The Rusagrotrans analytical center previously reduced the wheat export forecast for July from 3.6-4 million tons to 2.4-2.6 million tons against the backdrop of harvesting delays and low sales from agricultural producers. In the first month of the previous season, shipments amounted to 3.8 million tons. At the same time, analysts note that exporters' profitability, despite zero duty and rising FOB prices, is again in the negative zone due to increased purchase prices at ports amid growing ...

The U.S. Department of Agriculture in its July review raised the wheat export forecast from Russia in the 2025/26 agricultural year by 1 million tons, to 46 million tons (hereinafter without taking into account Crimea and new regions). The adjustment is explained by an increase in the harvest estimate by 0.5 million tons, to 83.5 million tons, and a reduction in competition from the EU and Ukraine. Although the forecast for gross wheat collection in EU countries was raised from 136.55 million tons to 137.25 million tons, the estimate of their export potential was reduced from 34.5 million tons to 32.5 million tons. According to American analysts, Ukraine can harvest 22 million tons of agricultural crops (23 million tons in the previous review) and supply 15.5 million tons to external markets (16.5 million tons). The American agricultural agency also lowered the wheat export estimate from Russia in the 2024/25 season by 0.5 million tons, to 43 million tons. Analysts noted that the ...

Demand prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for July-August delivery rose to $230/t FOB (+$4/t). Prices for French wheat strengthened to $236/t (+$6/t), Romanian wheat to $235/t (+$7/t), American wheat to $224/t (+$2/t), and Australian wheat to $252/t (+$3/t). Prices for Argentine wheat declined to $229/t (-$1/t). The exchange market fell at the beginning of the current week but then recovered in Chicago and notably strengthened in Paris against the backdrop of extremely low wheat export rates from Russia at the start of the new season and news of persistently low yields in several southern regions. Additionally, there are issues with protein levels in France, which are currently below expectations. Meanwhile, wheat harvesting in France is progressing faster than usual: as of July 7, 36% of wheat areas have been harvested (4% last year, 15% average over five years). At the Bangladesh wheat tender, the best offer was $268.90/t CIF LOC with delivery within 40 days of contract ...