베트남 과일 insights

Vietnam's coconut industry has seen significant growth in terms of export volume, export value, and commodity value. According to Cao Bodenko, Secretary General of the Vietnam Coconut Association, in the first half of 2025, the export value of the four main coconut products exceeded $520 million, a year-on-year increase of 20%. Mr. Cao Bodenko predicts that the export value of all types of coconut products from Vietnam in 2025 is expected to reach between $1.1 billion and $1.15 billion, with a year-on-year growth of about 20-25%. In particular, the export value of fresh coconuts is expected to far exceed last year's $390 million. This makes Vietnam the fourth largest coconut exporter in the Asia-Pacific region and the fifth largest in the world. With the growth in export value, the selling price of Vietnamese coconuts has also achieved a breakthrough. In 2023, the price of coconuts in the garden was about 5,000 Vietnamese dong per piece, rising to 15,000 Vietnamese dong per piece by the third quarter of 2025. However, to fully tap into the huge market potential, Vietnam's coconut industry must achieve sustainable development, innovate cultivation, processing, and value chain management methods. Adopting environmentally friendly, climate-adaptive, and emission-reducing coconut cultivation methods will become key factors in the future. A recent significant development is the approval by the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) of the codes for six new coconut planting areas and packaging factories in An Giang province, Vietnam. This opens up opportunities for Vietnam's fresh coconuts to penetrate deeper into the Chinese market, which currently accounts for 30%-35% of Vietnam's coconut export value. Vietnamese coconuts maintain a unique aroma and sweetness, which are favored by consumers in the United States and China. Additionally, Vietnamese fresh coconuts have advantages in transportation and preservation, and can be processed into various value-added products such as coconut flakes, coconut milk, canned coconut juice, and cosmetic ingredients. Adopting organic and environmentally friendly cultivation methods has become a sustainable direction to consolidate Vietnam's position in the global market for coconut products.

According to Nikkei Asia, Japanese trade statistics show that Vietnam's banana imports surged to 33,000 tons in 2024, a nearly 14-fold increase from 2019, raising Vietnam's market share in Japan from 0.2% to 3.2%. Although Vietnam holds a small share of Japan's total banana imports, the surge in imports is eroding the long-standing dominance of Philippine bananas. The latter's market share has fallen from around 90% in the early 2010s to approximately 75% last year. Currently, Vietnam ranks third in banana exports to Japan, behind the Philippines and Ecuador. Industry insiders attribute Vietnam's rapid rise to its competitive pricing and superior quality. Price displays from a chain supermarket show that Vietnamese bananas retail for about 10% less than those from the Philippines. Meanwhile, thanks to preferential trade terms under the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), Japan's tariff on Vietnamese bananas is as low as 5.4% and will be completely eliminated by 2028. In contrast, tariffs on Philippine bananas range from 8-18% depending on the season, which may further enhance Vietnam's price advantage in the coming years.

Although the world's largest exporter of dragon fruit, Vietnam is facing risks due to its over-reliance on the Chinese market. A proposal for a new handling method is currently being negotiated with the U.S., expected to open a sustainable and higher-value export path for this key fruit.