호주 곡물 및 시리얼 인사이트

Wheat quotations on global exchanges are falling ahead of the January USDA report, which may raise the harvest forecast in Australia and the ending stocks estimate. In addition, the forecast of wheat production for Argentina, where 95% of the crops have already been threshed, should be adjusted. Today is a day off in the United

This is part of the COMMODITIES 2025 series where our reporters bring to you key themes that will drive commodities markets in 2025. Australia is poised see a year-over-year jump in wheat production in the 2024-25 marketing year (October-September) following excellent weather on the East Coast and improved showers across Western Australia. Market participants estimate a 4 million mt increase year over year for the wheat crop to top 30 million mt. Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics has pegged Australia’s wheat production in MY 2024-25 at 31.9 million mt, up 23% year over year. However, concerns remain over quality downgrades as heavy rainfall in late November delayed harvest and impacted parameters such as test weight. “The situation isn’t as bad in Western Australia, but the East Coast got pretty big rain events [in late November],” a trade source based in Australia said. “At the time of the rain interruptions, we estimated there was still 5-6 million mt of g

The data is now out for the period October 2023 to September 2024, so pretty much the marketing year for last year's harvest. We have written about the return of China in relation to barley, with most of our trade being directed there. We heavily rely on Europe for our oilseed trade in canola, but wheat is a slightly different story. The market for wheat is much bigger, with a higher number of significant buyers of wheat, and this is reflected in our trade. Chart 1 shows the first 20 nations that purchased Australian wheat during the period of October 2023 and September 2024. These buyers account for the vast majority of our trade. The biggest buyer is China, with 19pc of the trade. This is significantly lower than the 75pc of our barley. The top five wheat buyers, China, Indonesia, Philippines, Yemen and Japan, account for 61pc of Australian wheat trade during the period. There are concerns about our reliance on key import nations for many of our export commodities; however,