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A recovery in palm oil production and lower imports by price-sensitive consumers are expected to drive prices lower, chipping away the premium of the tropical oil over rivals, even as top producer Indonesia boosts biodiesel production. Benchmark palm oil futures FCPO1!, which jumped 20% in 2024 to a two-year high, have already lost market share as top importers like India shift to cheaper alternatives such as soybean and sunflower oils. Palm oil has been trading at an unusual premium over other oils in recent months due to supply disruptions from top producers Indonesia and Malaysia, caused by floods. But palm oil inventories could start rising in the coming months as demand drops, industry officials and analysts said at a conference in Kuala Lumpur this week. “I expect that stocks will continue to rise if demand is not picking up at these prices,” said Thomas Mielke, executive director of Hamburg-based forecaster Oil World. DEMAND DESTRUCTION & HIGHER OUTPUT Elevated palm ...

Malaysia’s palm oil stocks are set to fall to 1.5 million metric tons by the end of February, their lowest level in nearly two years, as floods have hit production and the Ramadan festival has boosted demand, a senior regulatory official told Reuters. The drop in inventories in the world’s second-largest palm oil producing country after Indonesia could support benchmark futures FCPO1!, and sustain the commodity’s premium over competing oils. Floods in eastern parts of the country have reduced palm oil production in both January and February, Ahmad Parveez Ghulam Kadir, director-general of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB), said. Widespread flooding has hit regions across Malaysia since November last year, displacing more than 90,000 people. Another wave of floods in January forced thousands from their homes in Sarawak and Sabah. “This is the time where we will see buying increase, which I believe will keep prices stable and bring down stock levels,” he said. The holy month ...

Palm oil supplies are likely to remain tight for the next two to three months as floods have affected production in the world’s top two producers, Indonesia and Malaysia, a leading palm oil producer told Reuters on Tuesday. Lower production in key producing countries could support benchmark futures, and sustain the commodity’s premium over competing oils. “Supply in the next two to three months will be tight,” said Lee Oi Hian, Executive Chairman of Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad KLK, which has plantations in Malaysia and Indonesia. Palm oil yields in the first two months of the year have been affected by the floods, especially in Sabah, Malaysia and Indonesia, Lee said on the sidelines of the palm and lauric oils conference. The industry could feel the impact of the floods even in the longer term as usually higher rainfall leads to poor pollination and creates other problems, ...