Global cashew reserves are tightening, prices are rising.
The cashew production season in the Northern Hemisphere has concluded, and according to experts from Olam Food Ingredients (OFI), a leading global supplier of food and beverage ingredients, the global cashew export volume for the 2024/25 season is expected to increase by approximately 10% compared to the previous season. Most of these exports were completed before the end of July, which slightly alleviated the raw material shortages faced by processors in Vietnam and India. OFI noted that processing volumes in Asia and Africa peaked in the third quarter, and export volumes will continue to rise in the coming months as suppliers fulfill existing contracts. Purchase volumes from major consumer regions such as the European Union, China, and the Middle East have increased, leading to tighter inventories. The United States increased its purchases in the first two quarters, but subsequent import volumes declined due to tariffs imposed by Trump and market uncertainties.
Demand in India has also decreased, but market experts anticipate a gradual recovery starting with the festive season in September. Purchase intentions from China and Europe are expected to remain stable in the short term—the strengthening euro has boosted trading activity, with buyers seeking price advantages while meeting part of their needs. However, U.S. demand is expected to further shrink, with high retail prices making consumers more cautious. Data from the Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas) shows that from January to July 2025, Vietnam exported 83,000 tons of cashews to the United States, valued at $561 million, a decrease of 27.5% and 11.7% respectively compared to the same period last year. Although Vietnam still holds over 87% of the U.S. market, its value share is declining. From January 1, 2025, to September 14, 2025, the European Union's cashew imports increased by nearly 5% compared to the same period last year, with an average import price of 6.45 euros per kilogram, which is 20% higher than last year.